Appena letto un articolo in cui ben due gruppi di ricerca danno Donnie vincente. E niente, volevo solo informarvi che siamo fottuti.
Alcuni passaggi per i pigri che hanno il dito troppo pesante per un click:
Both groups of researchers say polling, the traditional questioning of likely voters, faces several hurdles in gaining an accurate picture of the electorate. They cite several issues, including difficulty in contacting a representative sample of voters because of the move from land lines to mobile phones; the fact that responders may not answer truthfully; and the fact that people who are polled may not vote.
“These are serious statisticians,” Antonakis says of the pollsters, “but they have a very wicked problem to solve.”
Unreliable polling “is why we started to develop API's (application programming interfaces) for analysing what users do on the Internet in terms of searches,” he says. “These are small software packages that analyse, for example, what people really search for on Google, Twitter and Facebook.”
The second Swiss-led research team, Antonakis and Jacquart, developed a computer programme to evaluate a candidate’s charisma – how appealing the person is to voters on a personal level.
Chissà come si sposterà al curva rossa nel grafico sotto nei prossimi anni?
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